I Love Poker

It's been a strange month at the poker room. The cap on the buy-in amounts is being removed July 1st here in Florida. Everyone is talking about it. Everyone waits in anticipation for our state to finally have "real" no-limit hold em. We shall see how everyone feels on August 1st.

I'm not sure many people understand the variance involved in any sort of a percentage probability. That's to say you can lose a lot of coin flips before you may ever win just one. Try it with a quarter some day when you are bored watching re-runs of American Idol, well if the old David Archuletta shows aren't on that is.

You'll find that heads or tails can come up, in a row, for 4 or 5 times, maybe more, in the short time you flip the coin. What's more, if you flipped the coin endlessly there would be a massive streak at some point. Well, if you relate this to poker, and you lose that many coin flips in poker, and let's say each time it for 500 dollars or more, well, one might go broke.

It's difficult to play poker when a person is concerned about the money. It's called "playing with scared money". When an opponent thinks you may be playing scared he is much more likely to apply pressure by putting you to repeated decisions for your whole stack. It wears on you like nothing else. I promise.

Thankfully I've developed a mode of play that sort of counteracts the issue. To prevail takes apathy is and will be my motto as poker changes here in the sunshine state. I try not to make big plays when I am, at best, a small favorite in the hand. It does not stop others from making massive plays against me. Luckily, TPTA handles that issue as well, as long as I adhere to it.

Yesterday, I limped with pocket kings. No one raised. Uh-oh. Warning lights on. Five of us took the flop of 10-6-2 with two spades. The big blind led out for $50. One caller, and now it's on me. I don't like the other guy in the hand, and I'd like to find out how committed he is to the hand. I min raised to $100. Everyone else folded.

The original bettor, a female who is a regular at the poker room and who I have played many hands against, now says "Alright Eric, I'm all in". The 3rd person folds immediately. Now it's up to me, and it's going to cost me $157 to call her all in.

I have to call, I know this. There is now almost $450 in the pot. I'm almost sure she has a flush draw or two pair. If she has two pair I will need to get lucky, and if she has a spade draw I will have to fade a spade on both the turn and the river. I hate it. This is exactly the spot I don't want to be in.

If she has the nut spade draw, that is she holds the ace of spades in her hand, then she has 12 clean outs to beat my pocket pair. 12 outs twice (the turn and the river) is the equivalent to having nearly 52% equity in this hand. That would mean I have 48% equity. So, I need to be lucky in this spot too.

She had A-3 of spades, and a spade came right on the turn, and I lost.

I misplayed the hand, however. This much I know. I should not have raised on the flop. I should have waited and seen the turn. Once the spade came I could have gotten away from the hand and lost much less. I played it poorly. I mean, on the ledger sheet, money saved in a losing hand is worth just as much as money won in a winning hand. A dollar is a dollar is a dollar.

So, what was my point? I can barely remember.. oh yes. If people continually get all of their money in on a coin flip there will be a lot of broke folks. I figure it will take a few months before people begin to realize they cannot sustain that type of play. Well, the wealthier will sustain it, but the number of players may dwindle.

I'll be waiting for the aggressive players. Waiting for my spot to pounce. I'll play better than the other tight players, and I'll trap the loose one's. I will prevail through a seemingly apathetic approach to the game. You and I will know the apathy is only a mirage. I want all of the chips. I want to take a cruise next winter, with my wife, maybe another couple will join us. The kids can stay to home because they are rotten anyway.

I'm playing golf with my son, a friend, and his son. It's warm, but I'm looking forward to it. Afterwords, I will most likely take my seat at a table down at the poker room. Maybe the wife will want to join me, maybe not. I'll be there, lie detecting my way through an evening of glorious triumphs and bad beats. It should be fun.

I love poker.

Codsey out.